Last Fall it was 416 distressed banks. Now, according to FDIC Chairman, Sheila Bair, the number has risen to 775 distressed banks. And according to Elizabeth Warren, Chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel, she has identified nearly 3000 community and regional banks that are classified as "risky" due to the coming collapse of the commercial real estate market. Regardless of whose numbers you look at, Sheila Bair's near term numbers, or Elizabeth Warren's longer term numbers, the number of at-risk banks is growing by leaps and bounds.
The conclusion is that for the foreseeable future, the trend that will be realized, is continuous bank consolidation. Is this necessarily a good thing? Well, if you're one of the banks who gets to do the consolidating, it's a great deal for you because a significant amount of the risk in terms of troubled assets is being subsidized by the FDIC. The FDIC is also entering into loss share agreements with the acquiring banks further increasing the potential losses for the FDIC as additional loans fail in the coming months and years.
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